👉 net return % on Day 8: -16.87%
👉 net return ETH on Day 8: -0.036 ETH
👉 net return % since inception: -9.93%
👉 number of trades on Day 8: 1
👉 number of option traded: 28
👉 fees paid ETH: +0.0084 ETH
Hi there,
I thought DAY 1 would have been a major lesson learned.
Well apparently not.
How it started
We’re end of Day 7, locked in my +9.39% net profit on my long call ETH-28MAY21-2000, my 6th positive trade in a row.
A bit confident, tried to play the long “long” game by buying out of the money calls ETH-28MAY21-3000. Yes, ETH @ $3’000.
Delta at that time was in the 27 region. So ETH would need a decent jump in the very next few days so that the delta would near the optimal 40-60 area where the option price is the most reactive to its underlying, the ETH.
But I did not want to buy those 28MAY21-3000-Calls outright but rather wait for a pullback. When starting considering these options, the bid ask spread was in the 0,080/0,090 with an ETH nearing $ 1’530. So I decided to leave a pending order overnight at 0.080, on the bid side, waiting for either a pullback, or for the volatility to cool down.
What happened
Checking in at 8am: nothing done overnight, the ETH climbed to $1’600 then cooled down early morning.
Checking again at 8.45am, boom, bought 28 calls 28MAY21-3000 at 0,080.
What happened next is yet another greedy behavior from me. ETH started again to climb to ~$1’589 (Bitstamp) and the option was even worth on the bid side at 0,0875, implying an unrealized +9.2% net profit. This low magnitude of profits perfectly aligned with my “small step profits strategy”.
But guess what, I did not cut, finding the perfect excuse that I’m playing the long “long” game.
At time of writing, ETH is down ~ -7.2% to $ 1’475ish and my option down -16.3% (ETH 0.067 bid side).
What I am doing now
Keep overnight and cut losses if the option is down ~ -25%.
Tomorrow DAY 9 March 3rd, 2021, in the morning between 8 and 9am Paris time, if ETH trades above $1’490, I will hodl.
$ 1’490 - $ 1’515 appears to be a congestion zone, but I have the feeling ETH on a 5min graph is forming a rounding bottom (positive configuration).
Recap of my portfolio and performance since inception
With a marked to market bid price for the 28 calls 28MAY21-3000 at 0,067.
Let’s see tomorrow morning,
Speak soon, Raph.